Monday, May 22, 2006

New Polling Numbers

There is a new poll by Democracy Corps looking at the Cranley v Chabot matchup. Mind you that this poll reflects the campaigning done by both campaigns so far. Chabot has spent over $132K, Cranley has spent only $66K.

Chabot 52%
Cranley 43%

There's a nine point margin between them at this point.

However, once voters hear the bios of Cranley and Chabot, the race becomes a dead heat:

Chabot 49%
Cranley 47%

At this point, I would be worried if I was in Chabot's campaign... The race is still in its early stages. Cranley is still awaiting several hundred thousand dollars from the DCCC and still has around $600K in the bank.

More figures from the OH-01 poll:
- 57% disapprove with Bush (Chabot votes with Bush 90% of the time!)
- 34% disapprove with Chabot in office, while 50% approve.
- If the OH-01 election was held today, 47% would vote Democrat, while 44% would vote Republican
- 59% want the country to go in a different direction
- 29% would support a Republican that supports Bush's agenda (Chabot does so 90% of the time, uh oh!)

Obviously, if the election were held today, Chabot would have a clear victory. But there are 5 1/2 months left of which Cranley will probably spend well over $1,000,000 trying to defeat Chabot. And, if the poll is correct, all Cranley has to do is get the background of him and Chabot out there, convince voters that Chabot will not take us in a new direction, and let voters know that Chabot supports Bush's agenda 90% of the time.

Easier said than done. Either way, it seems there is a foundation for a VERY close race in November.

* Link to the report from Buckeye State Blog


At 12:49 PM EDT, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Nice Blog. Keep up the good work.

Oso del Mar


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