Tuesday, July 25, 2006

Red-to-Blue Comes True for Cranley

I confirmed today that not only is the DCCC running $30 million worth of advertising in TV/radio outlets that overlap into OH-01, but they are "most likely" specifically producing ads for John Cranley's campaign.

The DCCC has $32 million in the bank, so $30 million is just about all of it.

Here's the AP article that broke the story a few days ago.

Remember, the DCCC chair told Cranley that his race is "ground zero" in the country. Cranley topped Chabot in fundraising last quarter - a first for him. And Chabot is going with his sole commericial (from 2 years ago!) that we can expect to be replayed locally.

If Chabot has $1.3 million cash on hand right now, I would expect at least $900,000 will be used for ads during the same time period as the DCCC's ads. Therefore, if the DCCC puts up at least half a million for Cranley's race, then I would say Chabot's cash on hand advantage really isn't that significant anymore.

However, the article said the $30m will go to around 20 district races. $30m / 20 = $1.5 million for each race. But since Cranley is in the special Red to Blue tier, his portion will likely be quite a bit more, say $2,000,000.

Let's add that $2m to Cranley's July cash on hand (750K) to compare with Chabot's July cash on hand.

Cranley - $2.7 million

Chabot - $1.3 million




Holy Crap.

2 Comments:

At 8:46 PM EDT, Anonymous staff said...

There's no way this info is correct. The D trip are not going to spend $30 million in 1 district - there aint enough fricken air time for that !

 
At 9:34 PM EDT, Blogger Ohio's First District said...

I didn't say that. The DCCC is running $30 million worth of ads for around 20 districts, most or all of which are part of the red-to-blue program. An AP article said part of the ad campaign is hitting Cincinnati. I confirmed that there will also be specific ads promoting Cranley.

If the DCCC is putting the 30 million in 20 districts equally, that equals 1.5 million per district.

I have no idea how much Cranley will get. Of course he is not getting the whole pot of $30 million! Though, that would be very funny. Kinda like that one movie with Richard Pryor.

 

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