Friday, November 03, 2006

Reckoning OH-01


I heard about the Cranley GOTV program yesterday. They certainly have their shit together.

I have heard conservative skeptics say that although Dems lead national polls for U.s. House races, what the polls don't measure is party and candidate GOTV efforts. In other words, Democratic campaigns are only as good as their GOTV efforts.

In OH-01, I think Steve Chabot would have a real chance of receiving 50%+ if Cranley had a poor GOTV program. Chabot would probably get 48-49% and the race would be very close, perhaps, if Cranley had a standard GOTV program.

But since the Cranley campaign really has a creative and organized GOTV program together, I wouldn't be surprised if Cranley surpasses what the OH-01 polls are saying -- especially if they get tons of independents and non-voters actually out to the polls.

From what I have heard about the Chabot campaign, they have the usual amount of volunteers lined up, but a sub-par GOTV program in place. Go figure.

From my perspective, this race is over. It leans more toward Cranley every time Chabot keeps lying in public. Moreover, Cranley has outraised Chabot on two fundraising cycles so far, he received THE most important endorsement in the race - the Enquirer - AND EVERY OH-01 POLL HAS CRANLEY TIED OR AHEAD OF CHABOT.

Steve Chabot still has not released ANY poll on his race, including the poll the NRCC ran for Chabot's campaign that had him way behind.

The OH-01 race is over.

On November, 7th, Cincinnati will have a Democrat controlled City council, a Democratic Mayor, a Democrat-controlled County Commission, a Democratic Congressman, a Democratic Governor, and a new Democratic Senator.

9 Comments:

At 12:22 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sadly, the racist, homophobic, cop loving, death penalty fanatic Repukes of the West Side will pull the Chabot over the 50% mark. Fuck 'em all.

 
At 1:03 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Unfortunately The Enquirer lost its credibility years ago; hate to burst your bubble but that endorsement did nothing…

 
At 1:59 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The Enquirer also endorsed NAMBLA-obsessed Ken Blackwell and psychotic Jean Schmidt, negating their endorsements of sane candidates like Cranley and Pepper.

 
At 3:53 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Who is Ken Blackwell?

Liberal
- College Football Star
- College Professor
- Cincinnati City Councilman
- Mayor of Cincinnati

Moderate
- Undersecretary for the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
- Ambassador to the United Nations Human Rights Commission

Conservative
- Ohio Treasurer

Conservative and Dumb
- Secretary of State

Crazy
- Candidate for Ohio Governor

Despite a couple weird parts of Blackwell's recent past, and despite his evolution of political ideology, he is a very accomplished and intelligent person.

Who is Jean Schmidt?

Very Conservative
- Bank Mananger
- Fitness Instructor
- School Teacher
- Right to Life Chairwoman
- Township Trustee
- Ohio Representative
- Ohio Senator

Crazy
- Ohio Congresswoman
- Candidate for Congress

Despite her campaign mishaps, lack of judgment on the house floor, and hair-do, she has a decent background as a conservative.

Who is the Enquirer?

A historic newspaper of many moderate, many conservative, and few liberal political staffers.

Their editorial board as a whole seems mainstream conservative. As such, they will endorse very conservatives and some moderates. They will not endorse liberals for the most part, unless they are running against someone with serious problems.

Hartman isn't that qualified, Ted is liberal.

It all makes sense if you think about it.

For Chabot, well, he has some problems. He doesn't do anything and he has bad judgment on the campaign trial which embarrasses Cincinnati. The alternative, Cranley, has a decent record, a lot of potential, will not embarrass the city, and of course he is very moderate.

End of story. The Enquirer isn't crazy, they are right of center. Accept it.

Ken Blackwell is a intelligent guy for the most part, as is Jean Schmidt. They are just controversial, which the editorial board really doesn't care that much about apparently.

Enquirer endorsement have proven to be influential. They do mean something. Just wait and see what happens on election day.

- Ben Affleck

 
At 4:12 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Kenny Blackwell (Alan Keyes) is a son of a bitch who says gays and lesbians can be "cured" like kleptomaniacs. He is a piece of human trash. It will be most satisfying to hear him giving a concession speech next Tuesday.

 
At 4:22 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

And if there were any justice, Ken Blackwell would be in a Federal Prison for the voter supression and election fraud he committed in 2004. He made good on his promise to "deliver" Ohio to Bush.

 
At 8:56 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

If Cranley' GOTV isso hot, why is he making robocalls for volunteers? Pretty pathetic.

 
At 9:27 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chabot hasn't done jack shit for the westside and he knows it.

 
At 10:26 PM EST, Anonymous Anonymous said...

The spirit of Richard Nixon is alive and well on the West Side.

 

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