I heard about the Cranley GOTV program yesterday. They certainly have their shit together.
I have heard conservative skeptics say that although Dems lead national polls for U.s. House races, what the polls don't measure is party and candidate GOTV efforts. In other words, Democratic campaigns are only as good as their GOTV efforts.
In OH-01, I think Steve Chabot would have a real chance of receiving 50%+ if Cranley had a poor GOTV program. Chabot would probably get 48-49% and the race would be very close, perhaps, if Cranley had a standard GOTV program.
But since the Cranley campaign really has a creative and organized GOTV program together, I wouldn't be surprised if Cranley surpasses what the OH-01 polls are saying -- especially if they get tons of independents and non-voters actually out to the polls.
From what I have heard about the Chabot campaign, they have the usual amount of volunteers lined up, but a sub-par GOTV program in place. Go figure.
From my perspective, this race is over. It leans more toward Cranley every time Chabot keeps lying in public. Moreover, Cranley has outraised Chabot on two fundraising cycles so far, he received THE most important endorsement in the race - the Enquirer - AND EVERY OH-01 POLL HAS CRANLEY TIED OR AHEAD OF CHABOT.
Steve Chabot still has not released ANY poll on his race, including the poll the NRCC ran for Chabot's campaign that had him way behind.
The OH-01 race is over.
On November, 7th, Cincinnati will have a Democrat controlled City council, a Democratic Mayor, a Democrat-controlled County Commission, a Democratic Congressman, a Democratic Governor, and a new Democratic Senator.